Residential developers focus much of their work on one big question: “Are people buying?” If so, it becomes important to understand what to build, based on who’s buying. One interesting measure developed by The Economist has revealed that one demographic has a better outlook following the recent housing demand boom. There is, as of 2024, an increased demand for housing among single occupants.
The Economist tracks a city’s affordability for single occupants via its “Carrie Bradshaw Index,” a metric named after the main character from Sex and The City, who infamously spends much of the series living alone (and fabulously) in New York City, on a freelance journalist’s salary. The British publication defines a comfortable rent as being 30% of the resident’s wages. They then compare how much one needs to make to live comfortably in the city’s average studio apartment against the city’s actual median wage. The result is a “Bradshaw” score.
For example, the wage required to rent alone in New York City without being “rent burdened” is $147,000…which is $87,610 more than the city’s median wage. Carrie would likely be out of luck.
The good news for many: The rest of the country has gotten more affordable for those looking to live solo.
During their 2023 review, 38 of the 100 cities in The Economist’s research sample were affordable. That number has jumped to 62 during 2024.
Vista Site Selection can’t tell you too much about Sex and The City (not on the record, anyhow) but, thanks to our site selection data models, we can tell you a lot about the trends that are making American cities more Carrie-friendly.
The first is that wages continue to increase as labor remains in demand, which means 30% of one’s income goes a lot further during 2024 than it did in the past few years, even when considering inflation.
The second simultaneous trend is that rent prices for studio apartments have been falling, particularly in regions where people are already moving to. “Sun Belt” cities such as Dallas have seen an influx of supply as the industry catches up with the post-COVID demand. According to the United States Census Bureau, the number of single-occupant rentals completed during 2023 was 36% higher than during 2018.
A final trend, albeit one that’s tougher to track with data alone, is that numerous cities have adjusted their zoning codes in response to housing demand. Minneapolis, Houston and Columbus, Ohio have adjusted their laws to either cancel single-family requirements (allowing developers to convert larger homes into multi-residence facilities) or lower the number of square feet required for a residential unit.
Does that mean you, as a developer, should be making a mad dash to these cities? Not necessarily. If lower rents cut too far into margins, there’s less reason to meet the demand. That’s why Vista Site Selection crafts a range of scenarios for clients, showing them the projected impact based on a number of variables, all based on our proprietary site selection software and the most up-to-date numbers. We understand that you’ve got your own metrics to measure success, and we work to satisfy those.
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